Moving Sands of Real Estate

Casey Samson

6 months ago

In order to understand where we are, and where we are going, you need to know how we got here.

Watch Casey discuss this topic on our latest Coffee with Casey episode.

In the Past: The Northern Virginia real estate market has experienced significant fluctuations over the decades. In the early 1980s, the area saw skyrocketing interest rates, which impacted housing affordability and slowed market activity. By the early 1990s, property prices began to fall, reflecting broader economic challenges. The financial crisis of 2007-2008 had a profound effect, with home prices plummeting dramatically in 2008. In 2015, the market faced an oversupply of inventory, leading to further price declines during 2016 and 2017. These historical patterns highlight the market’s susceptibility to economic cycles and external influences.

Since 2020: The real estate market has experienced significant challenges. Lockdowns and canceled seasons have contributed to widespread disruptions, while interest rates have swung dramatically from 2.5% to 7.5%. Inventory levels have plummeted by 35%, causing home prices to soar by 35% and rise 15% above the value line. The scarcity of homes has led to fierce competition, with some listings receiving up to 10 contracts and many transactions proceeding without home inspections. Additionally, an inflation rate of 8% has further complicated the market. The question on everyone’s mind is, when will these conditions stabilize? The forecast suggests a potential return to normalcy by June 2024.

What’s Next? Inventory has decreased by 35%, creating a competitive environment for potential buyers. Meanwhile, prices have surged by 35%, outpacing the 22% increase in values based on inflation. This means that current prices are approximately 13%-15% higher than what inflation-adjusted values would suggest.

These dynamics have impacted success rates for both buyers and sellers, with sellers often seeing quick sales and favorable offers, while buyers face more challenges securing properties. Interest rates also play a crucial role in this equation, influencing affordability and financing options.

If you are ready to make a move in this dynamic market, contact our team today! We are here to guide you through every step of the process and help you achieve your real estate goals.