Understanding price trends is crucial in today’s volatile market.
Across Fairfax, Loudoun, and Arlington Counties, market conditions favor buyers, with Prince William as the lone exception. Aldie stands out for strong inventory and sales activity, though excess inventory is putting pressure on pricing. In Vienna, 2,500 sq. ft. homes are significantly overpriced, averaging $311K above inflation adjusted values, while larger 4,500 sq. ft. homes are modestly underpriced by about $26K. Luxury pricing remains challenged, with only a 40% success rate for homes over $1.5M and a 75% failure rate above $2M. New home sales in Vienna have declined 12% since July with further softening expected. Piedmont continues to hold steady.
Through Q4 2025, 25%-35% of listings withdraw unsold.
That means:
Inventory build-up
Buyer’s markets emerging
Falling prices ahead
But here’s the key, homes that are prepared and priced right are still selling fast.
Our team went 4 for 4 in the last 2 weeks, all with multiple contracts in the first week.
75% of these homes sold non-contingent showing sellers can still come out on top.
Below you will find our brand new New Home Guide AND our comprehensive Market Snapshots by county and city, including inventory, pricing, and success rates.
County
Haymarket:
The battle between the two power neighborhoods rages on. Dominion Valley homes are currently $70k higher than Piedmont. Haymarket has been one of the slower markets in 2025 with slow inventory, sales and prices
County
Guide
The new home market has a more consistent inventory than resales. Prices are more effected by buyer demand than anything. Although the market cooled in the fall, New home sales rose 12% YTD caused by strong buyer demand (up 32%).
You?
Do you want to know what your home is worth?
Contact Our Pricing Team direct at [email protected] for a customized Market Snapshot.
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Watch or listen here.
- Need help understanding our charts: Learn More Here
- Want to understand real estate cycles better? Read this Article
“It was so wonderful to sell our home with the Casey Samson Team- the whole process played out exactly as they predicted and we could not have been more pleased. This team knows the market (listen to Casey’s podcasts) and are experts in getting things done!” Centreville Seller