Centreville Housing Market Update: Smaller Homes Continue to Outperform While Larger Homes Become More Balanced
First Half of 2026 Market Update
The Centreville housing market continues to tell two different stories. Homes under 3,500 square feet continue to experience stronger buyer demand and seller market conditions, while larger homes remain healthy but have become more balanced as inventory expands. Buyer demand remains steady throughout Centreville, but today’s market varies significantly depending on home size and neighborhood.
Homes Under 3,500 Square Feet Continue to Favor Sellers
Homes under 3,500 square feet continue to be the strongest segment of the Centreville market.
Year to date:
- Inventory is down 3%
- Sales are down 7%
- 62% of listings are currently under contract
- Success rate: 72%
During the past 14 days, homes under 3,500 square feet recorded a 27% absorption rate, reinforcing continued buyer demand despite a more balanced market than earlier this year.
Limited inventory continues to support seller market conditions for well prepared and properly priced homes.
Larger Homes Continue to Favor Buyers
Market conditions for homes over 3,500 square feet continue to move toward balance.
Year to date:
- Inventory is up 55%
- Sales are up 24%
- 47% of listings are currently under contract
- Success rate: 67%
Recent 14 day absorption measured 18%, reflecting a slower pace as buyers take advantage of increased inventory and greater selection.
Larger homes continue to sell, but buyers have more negotiating power than they did earlier this year.
Virginia Run Continues to Outperform
Virginia Run continues to outperform the broader Centreville market.
During the past 14 days, both smaller and larger homes recorded an impressive 50% absorption rate, demonstrating continued buyer demand in one of Centreville’s most desirable neighborhoods.
Representative home values have appreciated:
- Virginia Run Homes Under 3,500 SF: +19%
- Virginia Run Homes Over 3,500 SF: +10%
Across Centreville overall, representative values have increased:
- Homes Under 3,500 SF: +5%
- Homes Over 3,500 SF: +10%
The data continues to reinforce one of Centreville’s strongest trends: neighborhood location remains one of the biggest drivers of long term appreciation.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
The first half of 2026 reinforces what we’ve been watching throughout the year.
Homes under 3,500 square feet continue to outperform larger homes.
For sellers of smaller homes, limited inventory continues to support healthy buyer demand and seller market conditions.
For sellers of larger homes, pricing, preparation, and presentation have become increasingly important as buyers gain additional inventory and more negotiating power.
For homeowners considering a move up purchase, today’s market presents an opportunity. Many homeowners can sell a smaller home in a stronger seller’s market while purchasing a larger home in a more balanced market with greater inventory and selection.
The Bottom Line
Centreville continues to be a market of two stories.
Homes under 3,500 square feet continue to favor sellers, while larger homes have shifted toward a more balanced market as inventory expands.
Virginia Run continues to outperform the broader Centreville market, demonstrating that local neighborhood trends remain one of the strongest indicators of market performance.
Understanding where your home fits within today’s market is the key to making informed real estate decisions.
Get a Personalized Centreville Market Analysis
Whether you’re planning to sell, looking to buy, or simply want to know what your home is worth, the Casey Samson Team tracks Centreville market trends every day.
Contact us today for:
- A personalized home value analysis
- Neighborhood specific market insights
- A customized buying or selling strategy based on today’s Centreville market